The Pakistan Economic Survey 2024 has highlighted alarming projections of climate change impacts on the nation, emphasizing the urgent need for adaptive measures and robust mitigation strategies. As climate-related threats escalate, Pakistan faces significant economic, social, and environmental challenges.
Projected Climate Change Impacts
The survey details several critical projections for 2050 under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which reflect varying levels of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere:
Riverine Flood Damage:
The annual expected damage from riverine floods is projected to surge by 47 percent under RCP 4.5 and 49 percent under RCP 8.5. This increase underscores the heightened risk of flooding events as global temperatures rise, necessitating improved flood management and infrastructure resilience.
Heatwave Exposure:
The fraction of the population exposed to heatwaves annually is expected to increase by 32 percent (RCP 4.5) and 36 percent (RCP 8.5). The rising frequency and intensity of heatwaves pose severe health risks, particularly to vulnerable populations, highlighting the need for enhanced public health strategies and cooling solutions.
Declining Labour Productivity:
Labour productivity is projected to decline due to escalating heat stress, with a decrease of 7 percent (RCP 4.5) and 10 percent (RCP 8.5). This decline will affect economic output and livelihoods, particularly in sectors reliant on outdoor and manual labor.
Agricultural Impact:
Climate change will severely impact the agriculture sector, increasing pressure on food production and access. By 2050, the annual mean wheat yield is projected to decline by 1 percent (RCP 4.5) and 2.5 percent (RCP 8.5). This reduction in crop yields could exacerbate food insecurity and necessitate adaptive agricultural practices.
Water Security and Ecology:
Changes in precipitation and declining water availability could damage riverine ecosystems, impair water security, and affect hydropower production. Effective water management strategies will be crucial to maintaining ecological balance and ensuring sustainable water resources.
Sea-Level Rise:
Rising sea levels will lead to further salinization of soils, coastal erosion, and inundation, harming fisheries and aquaculture. Coastal communities will face increased risks, requiring comprehensive coastal zone management and protection measures.
Air and Water Pollution:
Worsening air and water pollution will aggravate human health, especially for those living in vulnerable areas. Addressing pollution through stringent regulations and innovative technologies will be vital to safeguarding public health.
