Israel has sworn it will retaliate for Iran’s missile barrage on Tuesday, which involved more than 180 ballistic missiles and was largely thwarted by Israel’s air defense systems. Below are some ways Israel, backed by the United States, could strike back.
GO AFTER IRAN’S MILITARY INSTALLATIONS
Some analysts believe Israel is most likely to reply by targeting Iranian military installations, especially those that produce ballistic missiles like the ones used in Tuesday’s attacks.
It could also take out Iranian air protection systems and missile-launching facilities. Washington has accused Tehran of supplying short-range ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine. Both countries deny that accusation. Analysts said that would be seen as the most in-kind reply to Iran’s attack.
ATTACK IRAN’S PETROLEUM PRODUCTION INFRASTRUCTURE
Israel could also hit Iran’s petroleum industry, which would hurt its economy. Such an attack could provoke Iran in turn to strike oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab states.
That could send the price of fuel, always a major U.S. campaign issue, soaring before Americans pick a new president and Congress in the Nov. 5 elections.
“I’m not sure that (a hike in world oil prices) would restrain the Israelis,” said David Des Roches, a former Department of Defense official involved in Gulf policy now with the U.S. National Defense University’s Near East-South Asia Center. Israel, he added, might view a hike in world oil prices as a benefit for former President Donald Trump‘s re-election campaign. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently has been more aligned with Trump’s Republicans than with Democrats.
ATTACK IRAN’S NUCLEAR FACILITIES
Strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities could delay Tehran’s ability to produce a nuclear weapon. Iran’s nuclear program is spread over many locations, only some of which are built underground.
However, a major attack on its nuclear infrastructure would likely provoke serious consequences, potentially including a sprint by Iran to build a nuclear weapon. Washington has said it would not support such an action by Israel.
Richard Hooker, a retired U.S. Army officer who served in the U.S. National Security Council under Republican and Democratic presidents, said it was a “distinct possibility” that Israel could strike Iran’s nuclear facilities but not a probability “because when you do something like that you put the Iranian leadership in a position to do something pretty dramatic in response.”
The Islamic Republic denies ever having had a nuclear weapons program or planning to have one.
The U.N. nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, and the U.S. intellect community concluded that Iran pursued a coordinated nuclear weapons program until 2003, and experts say that with the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal, it could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a bomb in a matter of weeks.
