2024 Year Of Economic Stabilization, Reviving Growth & Recovery: Dr Suleri
Dr. Abid Qaiyum Suleri, Executive Director of SDPI on Monday said 2024 has been a year of economic stabilization and recovery as negative GDP growth, heightened policy, and inflation rates had transitioned to positive indicators showing reviving growth trajectory.
The Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) hosted an insightful seminar on Pakistan’s Economic Outlook for 2024 as part of its Monday Seminar Series, with prominent experts discussing the country’s economic trajectory amidst political and global challenges.
Dr Suleri acknowledged the substantial progress made in 2024, citing a projected 3% GDP growth, a tripling of foreign reserves to $12.25 billion, and a significant reduction in inflation and policy rates.
He also pointed out that 2025 would be a crucial year, hinging on IMF program commitments, tax reforms, climate change management, and political stability. “Economy in 2025 will depend on a combination of factors, including Pakistan’s relationship with the IMF, USA, and China; climate resilience efforts, political stability, and investment in human development,” Dr Suleri said.
“The revival of political negotiations is a beacon of hope,” he said, noting the positive impact of improved relations between the government and the opposition. Dr. Suleri noted the importance of improved administrative control to manage inflation, citing the lack of regulation in sugar mills and poor stock management. He also stressed the discontinuation of SDPI’s food security dashboard at the Ministry of Food Security, underscoring the need for better data management and regulatory oversight.
As Pakistan navigates a challenging yet promising economic landscape, Dr Abid Suleri agreed that while stabilization has been achieved, significant reforms and strategic planning would be essential for sustainable growth in 2025 and beyond.
Dr. Shafqat Munir, Deputy Executive Director at SDPI, opened the session by highlighting the government’s growing confidence in Pakistan’s economic recovery. Referring to a recent press conference by the Finance Minister, Dr. Munir noted the optimistic economic indicators, signaling a potential turnaround after a challenging 2023.
Dr. Khaqan Hassan Najeeb, senior economist stressed that Pakistan’s economic recovery was only the third time in the last decade that the country had turned to the IMF for assistance. He emphasized the need for urgent reforms in taxation, agriculture productivity, and fiscal expenditure, warning that without substantial restructuring, Pakistan’s growth rate would remain below 1%. Dr. Najeeb also called for improved economic diplomacy, particularly with China, to unlock potential investment avenues.
Dr. Fareeha Armughan, another SDPI expert, highlighted the government’s substantial increase in social protection allocations, marking a historic high of 594 billion rupees. However, she pointed out that critical sectors like education and institutional governance remain underfunded and mismanaged. According to Dr. Armughan, aligning fiscal decisions with climate change and disaster risk reduction policies was crucial for long-term stability.
Dr. Sajid Amin Javed, Deputy Executive Director at SDPI, concluded the session by noting the decline in inflation rates and rupee stabilization. However, he emphasized that the government must remain cautious and proactive in 2025, particularly in energy inflation and employment targets. He warned that despite improvements, the economic foundation remains weak and needs stronger administrative measures, especially in sectors like agriculture and IT.
